The Answer To The Great MVP Debate.
- Sean McMechan
- Jan 8
- 7 min read
Updated: Jan 29
Like in any sport, the MVP race has its ebs and flows. We seem to crown the victor multiple times a year, deciding on a week to week basis who deserves the accolade. Patrick Mahomes was the favourite coming into the year. About halfway through the season, with his team winning while he produced pedestrian numbers, it was clear his case had to be abandoned. The focus shifted to Lamar Jackson after week seven when he threw for five passing touchdowns on Monday night against Tampa Bay. Throughout the remainder of the season however, Josh Allen stepped up and became the leader in the clubhouse, especially after lighting it up against the Rams and Lions in back to back weeks. If you really look at it though, the totality of Lamar's season is superior. If he wasn't granted the award twice already, Lamar Jackson would be the clear favourite.
Before I get into why Lamar should be crowned over Josh Allen, let's eliminate two other foolish nominees. Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are amongst the upper echelon of the NFL, putting up stats this year many players could only dream of. For Burrow, missing the playoffs is a simple and justifiable reason to eliminate his case. Even though his team is riddled with holes aside from a few stars, it's inconceivable to picture Jackson or Allen missing the playoffs in their prime while playing the entire season. Burrow may have passed the ball for 800 more yards than Lamar, but he also finished with 144 more completions.
Saquon on the other hand, had an historic season rushing the ball. If he played the final game he likely would've broken the single season rushing record (finishing with 2,005 yards, the record was set by Eric Dickerson at 2,105). He's earned the right to be classified as the best running back in the NFL. What he brings to the Eagles is an ability to hit home runs and close out games. The reason he can't be granted the award, is you'd be hard pressed to convince me there isn't four or five other running backs who could've ran for similar yardage given the golden opportunities Saquon had. The amount of times you'd watch the Eagles offensive line create a red carpet for him through the defense was unbelievable. Proof of that can be seen in how he led the league in yards before contact, by A LOT. He averaged 3.8 yards before being touched on every carry, with a total of 1,328. Both of those are massively ahead of Derrick Henry in second place who finished with 1,012 YBC. Saquon is special, but the Eagles would be formidable without him. It's like if Superman lost his heat vision. He'd still be powerful , but it's a sick addition that makes him even more super. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson aren't just an "addition" to their team. They ARE the team.
I want to nullify the most asinine critique of Jackson's candidacy. Some people view the addition of Derrick Henry as one of the main reasons Lamar was propelled to historic numbers this season. In the words of the great doctor evil from Austin Powers, "how about no". The Ravens this year rushed for 3,189 yards. Pretty amazing given it's the second most in NFL history. Guess who's number one? The 2019 Baltimore Ravens, when they did not have Derrick Henry. Guess which team rushed for the fifth most yards in NFL history? Bingo, the Baltimore Ravens in 2020. Guess who they didn't have then either? Derrick Henry. Similar to Saquon Barkley, he's a super ability for his team amongst an arsenal. He aids the superhero, he doesn't make him. In the 4 seasons where Lamar Jackson was the Ravens quarterback from gunshot to finish line they've rushed for 3,000 yards in all but one of them. Lamar Jackson made the life of Derrick Henry easier than Henry made the life of Jackson, and the Ravens have an historically elite offence routinely because of their quarterback more than anything else. This season was no exception.
Now it's time to compare the front runners. Here's all their statistics side by side.
STATISTICS | LAMAR JACKSON | JOSH ALEN |
Passing Yards | 4172 | 3731 |
Rushing Yards | 915 | 531 |
Total Yards | 5087 | 4262 |
Passing Touchdowns | 41 | 28 |
Rushing Touchdowns | 4 | 12 |
Total Touchdowns | 45 | 40 |
Interceptions | 4 | 6 |
Fumbles Lost | 5 | 2 |
Total Turnovers | 9 | 8 |
QBR | 77.5 | 77.2 |
Completion % | 66.7 | 63.6 |
Average Yard Per Pass | 8.8 | 7.7 |
Average Yards Per Rush | 6.6 | 5.2 |
% Pressured | 19.7 | 16.4 |
Total Times Pressured | 107 | 88 |
Dropped Balls | 28 | 20 |
As you can see, Lamar has outpaced and outperformed Allen in every major category. Allen did miss the final game of the year against the Patriots, but it wouldn't have changed the leader in any of the statistics. Sometimes you see a player with slightly worse stats be granted the MVP. Generally that's only in the case of a team obtaining the best record in the NFL, or snatching the one seed in their respective conference. Buffalo had none of that, only losing one more game than Baltimore. People also seem to forget the fact that Lamar won the head to head matchup. Therefore the traditional "record" argument is another flawed aspect that Allen supporters have been propelling.
None of this is to down play the fact that Josh Allen had a great season. The idea behind it, is to recognize the fact that Lamar had an exceptional one. Both quarterbacks contributed to 69% of the total yardage gained by their team throughout the year. The difference is that Baltimore's numbers weren't just historic for a rushing offence, they were historic for any offence. Finishing the season with a total of 7,224 yards ranking third most all-time. Buffalo on the other hand finished with 6,105. Both producing an equal percentage for their offence, but Lamar doing so on an all-time unit is an argument you just can't suppress. What's even more remarkable is that he became the first ever quarterback to pass for 4,000 yards while rushing for over 600, finishing with a whopping 915.
What's most impressive about Lamar is that he's morphed far beyond just an average passer. He's now an elite one, routinely showcasing better accuracy and decision making than his mvp counterpart. I'd argue that there's really nothing Allen does better than him, other than his power rushing abiliity which shines through in his rushing touchdowns, but Lamar still topples him in the total touchdown category. Plus, Lamar's passing numbers greatly surpass that of his peer even with an offensive line that allowed more pressures per drop back, and a group of pass catchers who accumulated a higher number of botched receptions. On top of that, his season culminated with the fourth best passer rating of all-time, along with the best touchdown to interception ratio in history.
Notice how all the "historical numbers" are for one candidate over the other? This grand production wasn't against the chumps of the league either. At the conclusion of the season, Baltimore ended up playing the second toughest schedule in the NFL. Their opponent's totaled 153 wins, and 10 out of their 17 games were against playoff teams. Buffalo on the other hand faced the 12th toughest schedule, with their opponents amassing 137 wins, playing only 5 games against playoff bound organizations.
Unfortuantely for Lamar, a large component of the award is narrative based. Two are distinct for Allen that elevate him in the eyes of his voting constituents. The first one is three games he partook in that are widely recognized as some of the best this season. A 30-21 victory over Kansas City, a 44-42 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams, and a 48-42 victory against the Detroit Lions. The fact that he defeated two 15-2 teams holds weight for sure, but as mentioned above, the rest of his schedule was undoubtedly easier. It's the six total touchdowns against the Rams, three passing/three rushing, and the game winning touchdown run against the Chiefs that will be the most talked about aspect of Allen's season. Passing for 362 yards against the Lions and gaining four total touchdowns wasn't too shabby either.
If we wanna talk about the best performances of their season though, Lamar has some equally impressive ones as well. If you take the three games in which they produced the most, both of them scored a combined 14 touchdowns. Even though Allen's games get the most recognition, Lamar is not without ones that are as equally jaw-dropping. The one advantage Allen has is the most impressive win of all. Handing the Kansas City Chiefs their one true loss of the season. Everything else is either a dead heat, or heavily in favor of Lamar.
The other narrative that leans toward's Allen is the fact that he's never won before. Lamar having won it twice gives him a disadvantage, as stupid as that sounds, and voter fatigue is a real thing. Lamar is no longer the shiny toy amongst the press. They like to crown what's new, and Lamar has "been there done that". People are also tired of the fact that Lamar has had a lack of playoff success, and somehow that seeps into the equation amongst voters. They ignore the fact that Allen really has none either. Jackson touts a 2-4 playoff record, while Allen is 5-5. However Lamar has played one less season than Allen, and has received a bye in two of them. If you viewed the byes as an automatic win, Lamar would be 4-4. Both quarterbacks have been to the AFC championship game once and were defeated by Kansas City. Both have lost one game in the wild-card round, Jackson has lost two in the divisional round while Allen has lost three. Neither of these guys have been able to get over the playoff hump, so acting like one has struggled while ignoring the record of the other is selective and overtly cricitcal. It largely comes down to the fact that Lamar has insane regular season success and production, but has yet to the hoist the Lombardi Trophy. But Allen hasn't been able to do that either, and just because Lamar outperforms him in the regular season doesn't mean his playoff record should be a knock against him when they're strikingly similar.
If Lamar hadn't already won the award twice there wouldn't be a debate for who was most deserving. Even with the season Josh had, Jackon's was superior in every way. He put up more passing yards, more rushing yards, more touchdowns, a greater completion percentage, all against greater competition. Josh Allen deserves his recognition, but Lamar's historic season deserves to be recognized above all else. As the discussion moves forward, I suspect it wil lean in the favor of Allen. The ridiculous thing is there shouldn't even be a discussion in the first place. If Lamar doesn't walk away with the award then it's highway robbery, there ain't two ways around it.
Comments