The Lions Have Been King Of The NFC All Year, But Now Their Throne Is Being Threatened.

The Detroit Lions have been the darling of the NFL. Possessing an explosive offense, a bevy of playmakers, and a coach who acts like his kahunas weigh him down. However, now they're reeling with injuries so drastically that their defense has begun to part like the red sea. At 12-2 and losing by only 6 points to one of the hottest teams in the NFL, it may be hard to believe that they're in trouble. Reality though is often hard to face. In the last three games they've given up 48 against the Bills, 31 against the Packers, and 20 in the second half to the lowly Bears. They never possessed an amazing defense, but with the injuries they've sustained over the latter half of the season, the script on how to beat them is out. Score points, and find a way to get up early, because they can't stop you.

If you have any doubt in what I'm saying, don't take my word for it. Take Dan Campbell's, becasue there is not a single individual in the NFL who believes in the Lions Defense less than their own head coach. Campbell has made a name for himself by buying into analytics and being aggressive at every possible turn. Going for it on 4th down more than anyone else in the NFL during his head coaching tenure, many have praised him for his willingness to take risks and believe in his playmakers. I though, have voiced a different tune, believing that while there is a time for aggressiveness, Campbell has started to cross the line into recklessness. Last week against Green Bay, they went for it on two risky fourth down calls, converting one and failing on the other. On my podcast I voiced concerns with his style and the lack of its sustainability. Too many times he's attempted to convert a 4th down where the risk didn't outway the reward, and I didn't support many of those decisions regardless of the outcome. In a way we saw this come to fruitition on Sunday, by attempting an onside Kick in the 4th quarter with 12 minutes left while only down 10. This was an unnecessary risk that didn't sink their team but shows two things. One, Campbell is willing to make outrageous calls because he has succeeded in the past, not because there's sound logic involved. However, the second point is more important. He made that call becasue regardless of the fact that it was statistically more likely they held them to a field goal or lucked into a turnover. He has zero faith in his defense. It's hard to blame him, but that doesn't hold back from the fact that that at this stage, the Lions are as one-sided as the Cincinnati Bengals. 16 defenders are on IR, with 9 of them officially done for the season. Missing key defensive lineman, linebackers, and members of the secondary does not bode well for success.

In the last 15 seasons, the teams that have won the Super Bowl have had an average of 9 players on IR at this point in the year, with the 2009 Saints and 2018 Patriots topping the list at 14. The Detroit Lions have a total of 21. At one point they felt like a team of destiny, but now they appear more destined to crash and burn. A key injury that isn't included in that IR number, is David Mongtomery. The Running Back sought out a third opinion on his injured MCL , and apparently he's refusing surgery to try and make a postseason return. However it unfolds, they'll be without him for an extended period of time. Whie Jahmyr Gibbs leads them in rushing yards, they have an equal amount of carries at 186 and 185, and Montgomery is the power back that unlocks so much for them in short yardage situations. More importantly for Dan Campbell, Montgomery is the workhouse he leans on in those high leverage, risky situations where they gamble like an addict.

While this team won't collapse due to a lack of mental toughness and utter dysfucntion like the Eagles from a year ago, there's a scenario where their season comes to a close in a similar fashion. Last season Philadelphia started off hot at 11-1. But locker room turmoil and a lack of leadership led them to an 11-6 record, dropping the division to Dallas, and a swift first round exit to the Tampa Bay Bucanners. This year, the Detroit Lions have held first since they beat Minnesota in week 6 and were cruising until recently. Now the Philadelphia Eagles are hot on their tail for the one seed with an identical record at 12-2, but what's more worrisome is their divisional rival Minnesota, who also posses a 12-2 record. As the NFL always does, they schedule division rivals in the final week of the season to create as much intrigue as possible. In the last three 3 games, Detroit will play Chicago, San Francisco, and Minnesota, while the Vikings Play Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit. The Lions clearly have the more favourable closing stretch, as they play two non-playoff teams prior to the Vikings whereas Seattle is still very much alive and Green Bay is a practical lock. With that being said though, there's real potential that Minnesota wins those two games and it's a winner take all battle for the NFC North in week 18. The doomsday scenario for the Lions would be to drop that final game in week 18 to the Vikings and fall to the 5 seed. If that were to unfold, their likely opponent would either be Tampa Bay or the winner of the NFC West (which feels like the LA Rams at this point). Both of those teams have highly potent offenses who will have no trouble scoring on the porous Lions defense, both having played the Lions earlier in the season where they produced highly competitive matchups, the Bucs actually coming out victorious.

Over the last month we've seen the chances become greater and greater that they face a first round exit. The injuries are mounting up with weeks to go, and eventually you reach that tipping point where you just have to wait for a capsize. These Lions have been a fun story, but the historical precedent is against them at this point. Though they played the Bills well on Sunday afternoon, no team has gone on to win the Super Bowl after losing at home while giving up 45 points or more. The slim remaining chance the Lions have to even make it to the Super Bowl hinges solely off of getting the number one seed. The Eagles play the Commanders who have lost their early season flair, the beat up Cowboys, and the failing Giants. Even if Detroit wins the division, they'll likely have to win out to retain their first round bye, and though this team may have been king all year, these Lions have no shot at surviving the cold urban jungle that is Philadelpiha.